About Me

I've been watching markets for thirty years. That's long enough to know the difference between signal and noise—and there's a lot of noise out there.

Most financial news is recycled analysis dressed up as insight. Most of the time, analysts tell you "if this happens, the stock could go up, but if the opposite happens, it will probably go down." This isn't analysis—it's stating the obvious. Like telling you "if it lands on black, you win; if it lands on red, you lose." Predictions without reasoning. Headlines designed to get clicks, not to inform.

That's not what you'll find here.

My Approach

If I can't explain why something is likely to move, I won't pretend to predict it. I've learned this the hard way—through wins that felt unstoppable and losses that were humbling. I've turned 10k into 130k in three months on forex correlations, only to watch it all disappear in ten minutes when geopolitical chaos broke every pattern I was trading. I've managed six-figure portfolios and seen them liquidated. I've made big gains, but also taken big losses.

Those experiences taught me something critical about mental accounting that most traders refuse to accept:

If your account goes from 10k to 100k, you don't have "10k plus 90k of gains." You have 100k. Period.

That's your money. Real money. You could close every position right now and withdraw it. The market doesn't distinguish between your "original capital" and your "profits"—and neither should you.

Too many traders lie to themselves after losses: "It was house money anyway." "Those were just paper gains." No—that was real money you chose not to take off the table. Own that decision. I've been there, and the excuses don't make the loss hurt less.

Here's the other side most people miss: You need to treat a 10k account with the same discipline as a 100k account. Not reckless with small money and conservative with large money—balanced, always. Same approach. Same risk management. Same discipline.

If you can't do that, you're not an investor. You're a gambler who occasionally gets lucky.

Mental accounting matters. Honesty matters more.

What I Focus On

I look for what moves markets beneath the surface. Not the headlines everyone sees, but the why behind the moves. Why gold is hitting all-time highs while equities rally. Why late-cycle patterns emerge even as media stays bullish. Why certain data gets revised months later, and what that means for the narrative you were sold.

I'm not here to sell you the next hot stock or promise easy gains. Markets are brutal, complex, and humbling. My job is to cut through the noise and explain what's actually happening—not what people want to hear.

Why This Site Exists

Because I got tired of reading the same recycled content everywhere. Because most financial analysis is predictable, surface-level, or outright misleading. Because traders and investors deserve better than "it could go up or down."

You'll find reasoning here, not guesswork. Analysis, not entertainment. And when I don't know something, I'll tell you.

Welcome to Nardaggio. Let's separate signal from noise.